Is everyone from California moving to Arizona? We hear that many Californians are buying homes in the Phoenix area, which would explain why the top end of the market is so strong right now. Unfortunately, it is not easy to confirm this fact from the Affidavits of Property Value; many out-of-state buyers are not putting their former address on the affidavits—a recent departure from common practice.
We are not sure if this is a deliberate ploy to hide the fact that they are from California, but we’ve noticed that oftentimes they’ll either:
• Just enter the new address instead of the old one
• Create an Arizona LLC to be the legal owner and enter that as the buyer’s address
• Rent prior to buying and put their local rental address as their old address
When a similar exodus occurred from 2001 to 2004, we saw a massive increase in California addresses, but today’s migration is not so easily verifiable. However, we can still look to other indirect indicators. The average cost of a U-Haul one-way rental to San Francisco from Phoenix is only $311, but coming into Phoenix from the other direction, the cost is roughly $2,500. Of course, U-Haul prices are based on supply and demand, and currently, there is an acute shortage of moving trucks in San Francisco but a glut in Phoenix, left by the people who recently moved here.
Recent reports from California suggest that two people are leaving the state for every one person that arrives—not necessarily good news for the Golden State, but certainly another clue for us. They also report that it is the comparatively wealthy who are more likely to move out.
Though direct evidence of Californians’ eastward push into Arizona isn’t as readily available as you’d think, one thing remains quite clear: This is one of the hottest real estate markets we’ve ever seen in the Phoenix area. There’s a chronic shortage of supply, meaning that if you own a home and have ever considered selling it, now may be a rare opportunity to cash out.
